Monday: Why follower count is dying
Tuesday: What platforms are doing
Wednesday: How marketplaces are repricing
Today: The panic move—mega-influencers buying fake engagement to stay relevant
The fraud economy is booming. And it's easier than you think.
The Fake Engagement Economy is Massive:
55% of influencer engagement on Instagram is fake—driven by bots, purchased followers, and engagement pods.
Brands are projected to lose over $2 billion to influencer fraud in 2025 alone.
1 in 4 influencers has engaged in fraudulent activity, including buying fake followers.
The math that created this market:
You can buy 1,000 YouTube followers for $49.
It's not a small problem. It's the standard operating procedure.
Why mega-influencers are panicking:
Remember Monday's data?
Nano-influencers (1K-10K followers): 60% higher engagement than mega-influencers.
If brands stop paying for follower count and only pay for engagement...
Mega-influencers lose their pricing power.
So they're buying fake engagement to inflate their metrics.
The 59-sec takeaway:
When the market shifts from reach to engagement, those with reach but no engagement panic.
The fraud playbook:
Buy followers to maintain credibility ($49 for 1,000)
Buy likes to inflate engagement (bots cost cents per like)
Join engagement pods (groups that artificially boost each other's posts)
Use comment bots (generic "Nice!" comments to inflate metrics)
The entire economy is built on fraud.
How brands are fighting back:
Sudden follower spikes
Bot-driven engagement patterns
Fake follower demographics (accounts from random countries)
Generic/repetitive comments
AI-powered fraud detection analyzes:
Follower authenticity (real humans vs bots)
Engagement quality (thoughtful comments vs spam)
Growth patterns (gradual vs suspicious spikes)
Although 55% of engagement on Instagram is fake tools can now detect it.
The question: Are brands using these tools? Or still paying for vanity metrics?
How I'd use this:
If you're building influence:
Never buy followers or engagement. There is no point.
Because:
Fraud detection tools catch it (you get blacklisted)
Brands are vetting harder (AI scans your history)
Platforms penalize fake engagement (algorithm suppression)
It trains you to optimize for the wrong metric
Instead:
Focus on quality engagement that can't be faked:
Reply depth (do people have conversations in your comments?)
Save rate (do people bookmark for later?)
Share rate (do people send to friends?)
Profile visits (do people click to learn more?)
For Under 59: I could buy 1,000 fake subscribers for probably $50.
But they wouldn't:
Reply to predictions
Forward emails
Apply tactics
Buy We Need Therapy
Fake metrics is basically fake business. Only real engagement gets real revenue.
Why this matters for Monday's prediction:
Mega-influencers with high follower counts but low engagement are panicking.
Option C (mega-influencers buy fake engagement) is already happening.
But detection tools are getting smarter.
The arms race: Fraudsters vs fraud detectors.
Who wins?
Clue #4 collected.
Tomorrow: Quiz + final predictions. Winner announced Monday.
Peace,
Pavan
P.S. Tomorrow: Quiz on all 4 clues + your final prediction. Let's see who called it.
P.P.S. 55% of engagement on Instagram is fake. The fraud economy is bigger than the real economy. That's not sustainable.