Follower count is dead and we are just realising it’s impact.
While you're still chasing accounts with 1M+ followers, the market has shifted.
Welcome to the engagement economy.
Thanks to the small number of you guys Under59 has 95% engagement. [Mind blown]
This Week's Prediction Challenge:
44% of Gen Z make purchasing decisions based on influencer recommendations, not follower count.
Brands are shifting from mega-influencers (1M+ followers) to nano-influencers (1K-10K followers) with high engagement.
Instagram tested hiding follower counts. TikTok prioritizes engagement rate over reach.
Follower count is becoming meaningless.
Four possible moves happen next:
A) Platforms hide follower counts entirely (like Instagram tested—make it permanent globally)
B) Influencer marketplaces (AspireIQ, Creator.co) pivot to engagement-only pricing
C) Mega-influencers buy fake engagement to stay relevant
D) Brands ignore the data and keep chasing follower count anyway
Don't predict yet. I'm breaking down each move this week.
By Friday, you'll know which direction this might head in.
Today's Breakdown:
The shift is already here.
Nano-influencers (1K-10K followers) generate 60% higher engagement than mega-influencers (1M+).
Why?
1. Authenticity beats reach
1M followers = broad audience, low trust.
5K followers = tight community, high trust.
When someone with 5K followers recommends a product, their audience believes them.
When someone with 1M followers does, it feels like a paid ad (because it usually is).
2. The math changed
Old model:
Pay mega-influencer $50K - Reach 1M people - Get 10K likes (1% engagement) - Maybe 100 sales
New model:
Pay 50 nano-influencers $1K each - Reach 250K people total - Get 15K likes (6% engagement) - Get 500+ sales
Same budget. 5x better results.
3. Gen Z doesn't care about follower count
44% of Gen Z make purchasing decisions based on influencer recommendations, not follower size.
They care about:
Does this person seem real?
Do they actually use this product?
Is their opinion trusted in their niche?
Follower count doesn’t mean credibility anymore.
The 59-sec takeaway:
The influencer market is correcting.
Reach was overvalued and engagement was underpriced.
Now:
Nano-influencers command higher ROI
Platforms test hiding follower counts
Brands shift budgets to engagement metrics
Follower count was a vanity metric disguised as a success metric.
Engagement is what actually drives sales.
How I'd use this:
If you're building influence (personal brand, creator, founder):
Stop optimizing for followers.
Start optimizing for:
Reply rate (how many comments per post)
Save rate (how many people bookmark your content)
Share rate (how many people send it to friends)
Conversion rate (how many people take action)
For Under 59: I don't care if I have 100 or 10,000 subscribers.
I care if people:
Reply to predictions (engagement)
Forward emails (shares)
Apply tactics (conversion)
13 engaged subscribers > 1,000 ghosts.
Quality > quantity. Always.
[On that note: Forward this to someone who is passionate about marketing. ;)]
Why this matters for Monday's prediction:
If follower count dies, the entire influencer economy restructures.
Platforms might hide counts permanently. Marketplaces might reprice influencers by engagement only. Mega-influencers might panic and buy fake engagement.
Or... brands might ignore this data and keep doing what they've always done (paying for follower count).
What happens first?
Clue #1 collected.
Tomorrow: What platforms are doing about this shift.
Later,
Pavan
P.S. Early prediction? Reply now with A, B, C, or D. You can change it Friday after all clues.
P.P.S. If you're still chasing follower count in 2025, you're optimizing for the wrong metric. This week explains what replaces it.