I bet on Mega-influencers buying fake engagement.

It's Friday.

You've spent 4 days collecting clues and I've spent 4 days analyzing signals.
Time to see if we agree.

Test what you retained:

Question 1: Nano-influencers (1K-10K followers) generate what engagement rate compared to mega-influencers?
A) 20% higher
B) 40% higher
C) 60% higher
D) Same engagement

Question 2: Instagram's test of hiding like counts resulted in:
A) Users leaving the platform
B) Users staying 8% longer on app
C) Creators gaining more followers
D) No measurable change

Question 3: AspireIQ's minimum requirement for campaigns is:
A) 10,000 followers
B) 5,000 followers
C) 200 engagements per post
D) 50,000 followers

Question 4: What percentage of Instagram engagement is fake?
A) 15%
B) 35%
C) 55%
D) 75%

Answers at the bottom

I've analyzed all week.

My prediction: Option C (Mega-influencers buy fake engagement)

Confidence level: 65%

Here's my reasoning:

1. It's Already Happening at Scale

55% of Instagram engagement is already fake.

23% of followers are purchased.

30% of influencers buy engagements.

This isn't a future move, it’s the present reality.
The question isn't "will they?" it’s "will they get caught?"

2. Financial Pressure Creates Desperation

Mega-influencers built businesses on follower count. Now that marketplaces filter by engagement (AspireIQ: 200 engagements minimum) -

They have three options:

It’s not hard to see what influencers might pick given the economics of it.

3. The Economics Favor Fraud

Buy 1,000 followers: $49
Buy 1,000 likes: $10-20
Join engagement pod: Free

vs.

Lose brand deal: $10,000-$100,000
The ROI of fraud is massive.

4. Detection Tools Are Slow to Adopt

Yes, HypeAuditor, Modash, and CreatorTag exist.
But how many brands actually use them?

Brands lose $2 billion to fraud in 2025.
If detection was widespread, this number would be dropping.

It's not! The fraud economy is growing.

5. Timeline Matches

This is happening right now as the shift accelerates.

Platforms testing metrics changes (Instagram).
Marketplaces already filtering by engagement (AspireIQ).
Mega-influencers already buying fake engagement (55% fake rate).

Option C isn't a future prediction, it's a current observation.

Option A (Platforms hide counts): Happens, but slowly.

Instagram tested it, they failed, but they will test again. Takes minimum 12-18 months to roll out globally.

Too slow to be "first."

Option B (Marketplaces repriced): Already done.

AspireIQ's 200 engagement minimum is live, and other platforms following.
This isn't "next." It's "now." And rightly so.

Option D (Brands ignore data): Some will.

But enough brands are shifting to engagement metrics that it's not the dominant move.
Inertia is strong, but the data is too clear.

25% chance Option B happens "first":

10% chance Option A happens faster:

My biggest blind spot:

I'm defining "first" as "most visible market response."
But Option B (marketplaces) and Option C (fake engagement) are BOTH already happening.

So maybe the real answer is: "They're all happening simultaneously."

I'm betting C is most visible/impactful in the next 6 months.

Reply with:

“Correct”and your reasoning if you're betting on B too

“Wrong” + A/C/D + your reasoning if you disagree

Tell me:

Let's debate this.

1-C, 2-B, 3-C, 4-C

Your Score:

4/4: Top 1% pattern recognition. You're ready to predict.
3/4: Solid retention. You got the signals that matter.
2/4: You're learning. Keep playing.
1/4: At least you showed up.
0/4: Did your intern take this quiz?

This Week's Complete Breakdown:

Monday: Why Follower Count is Dying - Nano-influencers outperform mega
Tuesday: Platforms Experimenting - Instagram failed, TikTok succeeded
Wednesday: Marketplaces Repricing - AspireIQ's engagement requirements
Thursday: Fraud Economy Booming - 55% fake engagement rate

Peace,
Pavan

P.S. Reply with: your quiz score + your prediction + if you think I'm wrong about Option C.

P.P.S. Don't forward this to your marketer friends if you want your edge. But I need subscribers, so... your call.